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英国经济与商业研究中心的年度报告称,2028年中国经济将赶超美国,成为全球最大经济体,比疫情前的预测提早了五年;印度有望在2030年成为全球第三大经济体。

 

英国智库:中国经济将在2028年赶超美国 A man wearing a mask walks past the headquarters of the People's Bank of China, the central bank, in Beijing, China, as the country is hit by an outbreak of the new coronavirus, February 3, 2020. REUTERS/Jason Lee

 

China will overtake the US to become the world's largest economy by 2028, five years earlier than previously forecast, a report says.

一份报告称,2028年中国将超越美国成为全球最大经济体,比原先预测的提早五年。

 

The UK-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said China's "skilful" management of Covid-19 would boost its relative growth compared to the US and Europe in coming years.

总部在英国的经济与商业研究中心指出,中国对新冠疫情的管控“有方”将在未来数年提高中国相对美国和欧洲的经济增长率。

 

Meanwhile India is tipped to become the third largest economy by 2030.

与此同时,报告预测印度将在2030年成为世界第三大经济体。

 

The CEBR releases its economic league table every year on 26 December.

经济与商业研究中心每年12月26日都会发布经济竞争力排行榜。

 

Although China was the first country hit by Covid-19, it controlled the disease through swift and extremely strict action, meaning it did not need to repeat economically paralysing lockdowns as European countries have done.

尽管中国是最先遭受新冠疫情打击的国家,但是中国通过快速和非常严格的措施控制住了疫情,这意味着中国无需重复欧洲国家实施的导致经济瘫痪的封锁政策。

 

As a result, unlike other major economies, it has avoided an economic recession in 2020 and is in fact estimated to see growth of 2% this year.

因此,和其他主要经济体不同,中国在2020年避免了经济衰退,事实上估计中国经济今年还能增长2%。

 

The US economy, by contrast, has been hit hard by the world's worst coronavirus epidemic in terms of sheer numbers. More than 330,000 people have died in the US and there have been some 18.5 million confirmed cases.

相比之下,美国经济遭到了世界最糟新冠疫情(确诊人数最多)的重击。疫情导致美国逾33万人死亡,确诊病例达到了1850万之多。

 

The economic damage has been cushioned by monetary policy and a huge fiscal stimulus, but political disagreements over a new stimulus package could leave around 14 million Americans without unemployment benefit payments in the new year.

货币政策和大额财政刺激方案缓解了美国经济受到的冲击,但是针对一项新经济刺激计划的政见分歧可能会导致来年约1400万美国人领不到失业救济金。

 

The report says that after "a strong post-pandemic rebound in 2021", the US economy will grow by about 1.9% annually from 2022-24 and then slow to 1.6% in the years after that.

报告称,“2021年疫情后经济出现强劲反弹”之后,美国经济将在2022年到2024年达到约1.9%的年增长率,此后几年增长率将放缓至1.6%。

 

英国智库:中国经济将在2028年赶超美国 Credit: BBC

 

By contrast the Chinese economy is tipped to grow by 5.7% annually until 2025, and 4.5% annually from 2026-2030.

相比之下,报告预测中国经济每年将增长5.7%,并保持这一增速直至2025年,而且在2026年到2030年间将维持4.5%的年增长率。

 

China's share of the world economy has risen from just 3.6% in 2000 to 17.8% now and the country will become a "high-income economy" by 2023, the report says.

报告称,中国在世界经济中所占的份额已从2000年的3.6%增长到现在的17.8%,中国将在2023年成为“高收入经济体”。

 

The Chinese economy is not only benefitting from having controlled Covid-19 early, but also aggressive policymaking targeting industries like advanced manufacturing, said CEBR deputy chairman Douglas McWilliams.

经济与商业研究中心副主席道格拉斯·麦克威廉姆斯表示,中国经济不仅受益于早早地控制住了新冠疫情,还得益于针对先进制造业等产业的积极决策。

 

经济与商业研究中心的其他预测:

 

The post-Brexit UK economy will grow by 4% annually from 2021-25 and 1.8% annually from 2026-30.

脱欧后英国经济将会在2021年到2025年实现4%的年增长率,2026年到2030年实现1.8%的年增长率。

 

India had overtaken the UK as the fifth-biggest economy in 2019 but has slipped behind it again due to the pandemic's impact. It won't take over again until 2024, the CEBR says.

印度已经在2019年超越英国成为第五大经济体,但由于受到疫情影响又被英国赶超。印度想再次成为第五大经济体要等到2024年。

 

India's economy will go on to overtake Germany in 2027 and Japan in 2030.

印度经济将在2027年超越德国,2030年超越日本。

 

英文来源:BBC

翻译&编辑:丹妮

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